The role of geological models and uncertainties in safety assessments

Abstract Safety assessments in nuclear waste management typically include the analysis of thermo-mechanical (TM)-coupled processes. The TM behavior host rock is, among other aspects, dependent on prevalent geological geometry. This study aims to evaluate impact uncertainties geometry behavior. It is one very first studies aiming bring structural models and numerical simulations together. To analyze influence geometries, a simplified model region around Mont Terri laboratory was created. A 3D set up lithological contacts were quantified by means stochastic simulations, resulting an ensemble 89 realizations. These realizations transformed 2D model. In this model, computed over simulation time 500 years, employing Finite Element Method. simulate heat source waste, lower edge 100 °C. results these show mean temperature variations 90.89 92.70 °C after with maximum stress varying between 0.02 0.16 MPa elastic shear energy density according cumulative displacements ranging from 30 38 cm. presented indicate that different geometries differences material properties lead noticeable variabilities claystone. However, case, would not significantly affect integrity rock.